What is decision support under uncertainty?
Decision support under uncertainty helps leaders choose plans that perform well across many possible futures, with the trade-offs and assumptions visible. Building Resilience develops decision support systems for real operations where reliability, transparency and accountability matter.
How it works
Frame the decision
What is being decided, by whom, by when, and what would make it a good or bad outcome.
Describe the uncertainty
Demand, prices, lead times, supplier reliability, weather, policy: each as a range, using history and expert judgement.
Model and simulate
A model or digital twin runs each option across many futures.
Optimize for robustness
Our stochastic optimization, enhanced by genetic algorithms, searches widely for options that hold up, instead of stopping at a local optimum.
Show, don't hide
Results are presented so decision-makers see what drives them and can challenge the assumptions.
Where it has worked
- Supply chain strategy: multi-step, multi-country supply chains; for some businesses the robust answer was to concentrate on domestic markets. Read more.
- Early warning: quantitative evidence of an unusual spike weeks before official reports. Read more.
- Procurement: a framework that cut procurement costs by 30%. Read more.
- Housing and energy: a study of 40 homes and community buildings that led to a First Nations community's first net zero home. Read more.
Principles
- Systems support human decisions; they do not replace them.
- Outputs and processes are understandable and traceable.
- Clear responsibility for decisions and outcomes.
- Systems must work in real-world environments, not just theoretical settings.
See Governance for how we build this in from the start.
Questions people ask
What is decision-making under uncertainty?
It is making choices when key inputs, such as demand, prices, lead times or weather, cannot be known in advance. Good practice is to describe the range of possible outcomes and choose options that perform acceptably across that range, rather than optimizing for one forecast.
What is a robust decision?
A robust decision is one that performs well across many plausible futures, even if it is not the best possible choice for any single one. It trades a little upside for much less exposure to bad outcomes.
What is a decision support system?
A decision support system brings together data, models and analysis to help people make a specific decision. It does not make the decision; it shows the options, their likely outcomes and the trade-offs so accountable people can choose.