# Innovating for Resilience: Algorithms and Practical Solutions for a Changing World

> An early warning algorithm that detected an unusual spike in UK deaths weeks before the first reported COVID-19 case, plus supply chain optimization and…

URL: https://www.buildresil.com/experience/algorithms-for-resilience
Last updated: 2026-11-01

An early warning algorithm that flagged a January 2020 spike in UK deaths, stochastic optimization for global supply chains, and accessible air-tightness testing.

## Summary

**An early warning algorithm that detected an unusual spike in UK deaths weeks before the first reported COVID-19 case, plus supply chain optimization and accessible air-tightness testing.**

## The story

At the forefront of technological development, Building Resilience is pioneering solutions that address uncertainty and inefficiency in diverse sectors. From advanced algorithms to practical tools for rural communities, our innovations are designed to tackle real-world challenges and create sustainable, impactful results.

One such advancement is our early warning algorithm, developed to detect sudden departures from established patterns in datasets. Initially applied to mortality data, this tool identified a significant spike in deaths in early January 2020—weeks before the first official case of COVID-19 was reported in the UK. While anecdotal reports hinted at earlier outbreaks, the algorithm provided quantitative evidence of the virus’s early impact.

Beyond public health, this technology has vast potential applications. It can be deployed to monitor anomalies in sales, criminal activity, production processes, or other systems where early detection could minimize risks and maximize opportunities. By analyzing historic data to establish normal patterns and random variation, the algorithm equips decision-makers with actionable insights, reducing uncertainty in high-stakes environments.

In the realm of supply chain optimization, Building Resilience has developed a stochastic optimization approach enhanced by genetic algorithms. This tool is particularly effective for industries with complex, multi-step supply chains that span multiple countries, currencies, and risk factors. By avoiding the pitfalls of focusing solely on local optima, the algorithm explores alternative assumptions, ensuring robust solutions. A novel finding from this work revealed that for some businesses, concentrating on domestic markets can mitigate risks and yield better long-term outcomes than pursuing volatile international opportunities.

We also focus on developing practical, client-driven solutions. For example, current methods to measure a building’s air tightness—such as blower door tests—are often impractical for rural and remote areas due to expensive equipment and the need for skilled technicians. In response, we are creating an alternative process using flexible technology and intuitive software. This approach emphasizes identifying and eliminating air leaks rather than measuring metrics like ACH50, making it more accessible for First Nations, rural, and remote communities. By addressing draftiness, these solutions enhance comfort and reduce heating costs, often in areas with colder climates and limited resources.

Our approach to innovation is rooted in collaboration. Whether identifying barriers to adoption for a client’s technology or co-developing solutions to specific challenges, we prioritize practical outcomes. For example, we partnered with a client to repurpose an algorithm designed for detecting subsurface cracks in nuclear reactors, identifying alternative applications with more urgent market demand. By combining business and technical expertise, we ensure that the solutions we develop are both effective and broadly applicable.

Building Resilience’s focus on appropriate technology bridges gaps in accessibility, affordability, and practicality. From enabling earlier responses to emerging crises to providing tools that improve daily living, our innovations are shaping a more resilient and sustainable future for all.

## Why it matters

This work underpins the development of AI-enabled decision support systems that detect patterns, reduce uncertainty, and support governed decision-making.

## Questions people ask

### How early did the algorithm detect the COVID-19 signal?

Applied to mortality data, it identified a significant spike in deaths in early January 2020, weeks before the first official COVID-19 case was reported in the UK.

### What did the supply chain optimization find?

For some businesses, concentrating on domestic markets can reduce risk and give better long-term outcomes than pursuing volatile international opportunities.


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Building Resilience (BuildResil) · 226-386-4343 · SupplyChain@buildresil.com · https://www.buildresil.com